H-1B selection becomes wage-based rather than lottery-based by January 2027
Mini
7
Ṁ1032026
46%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Market resolves YES if USCIS officially implements a wage-based H-1B selection system replacing the current lottery system. Resolves NO if the lottery system remains in place.
Resolution source: USCIS H-1B Electronic Registration Process updates (https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations)
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the ability of F-1 international students to work in the US be severely curtailed before July 2025?
15% chance
Conditional on Trump being elected, how many H1B recipients will be admitted in the USA in 2026?
Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2026?
57% chance
Will the H-1B country caps be raised or eliminated in 2025?
36% chance
Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2027?
50% chance
Will the H-1B visa cap increase by at least 50% or be removed before Fiscal Year 2027?
14% chance
Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2028?
65% chance
Will Congress pass a bill eliminating or increasing per-country caps on employment-based green cards by December 31 2026
37% chance
Will the US stop issuing O-1 visas in 2025?
21% chance
Will the number of employment-based green cards awarded in 2025 be lower than 160,000?
83% chance