Will a LLM/elicit be able to do proper causal modeling (identifying papers that didn't control for covariates) in 2024?
Mini
1
Ṁ10Jan 1
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Especially the melatonin=>longevity paper Mike Lustgarten tweeted
Get
1,000and
1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?
45% chance
Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?
By the end of June 2025, will closed-source LLMs increase access to pandemic agents?
50% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
72% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters?
24% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?
42% chance
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
34% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
26% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters?
40% chance
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
43% chance