Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Will taking annual MRIs of the smartest alignment researchers turn out alignment-relevant by 2033?

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

Will deceptive misalignment occur in any AI system before 2030?

Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?

Will "Alignment Faking in Large Language Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?