Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the Birmingham bin worker strike ends before 31 January 2026. The market resolves NO if the strike continues through 31 January 2026 or beyond.

For resolution purposes, the strike is considered "ended" when Unite the Union officially calls off industrial action and workers return to normal duties. This should be verifiable through official statements from Unite the Union or Birmingham City Council announcements confirming the end of strike action.

Background

The strike began on 11 March 2025 after a dispute with the council over its proposed pay cuts and elimination of Waste Recycling and Collection Officer (WRCO) roles. Approximately 150 to 170 workers face pay cuts of up to £8,000 annually.

Workers have overwhelmingly voted to extend their industrial action mandate to March 2026. Strikes continued after government-appointed commissioners scuppered a deal that would have ended the dispute. A "ball park" deal was agreed in May through ACAS, but the council's chief executive later advised she could not get it past the commissioners.

A third 'megapicket' protest is planned for 6am on January 30, 2026.

Considerations

There have been no formal negotiations since May, when the council went back on a "ballpark deal" struck by council chief executive Joanne Roney. The council has maintained it will not budge on its core position, while Unite has stated it remains willing to negotiate but only for a "fair and reasonable deal" that protects worker pay.

Agency workers previously hired by the council to break the strike are now themselves in strike and have joined the Birmingham bin workers.