Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?
Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?
Mini
4
Ṁ316
2027
81%
chance

Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows for the free movement of goods, services, and people between Iceland and the European Union (EU). However, Iceland is not a member of the EU itself.

Here are some key points about Iceland's relationship with the EU:

* Iceland is part of the Schengen Area, allowing for passport-free travel between Iceland and other Schengen countries.

* Iceland is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which allows for the free movement of goods with EU member states.

* Iceland has a bilateral agreement with the EU, the European Economic Area Agreement (EEA Agreement), which grants Iceland access to the EU's single market.

* Iceland has also signed the Schengen Agreement, which allows for the free movement of people between Iceland and other Schengen countries.

Results will be judged based off of development in the EU's official website: https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/eu-countries_en#header_countries_list

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.