Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Elon Musk donates more than $400 million (cumulatively) to a single 2028 presidential nominee's campaign by the end of 2028. This includes direct donations, contributions through Super PACs, or other campaign-related expenditures explicitly attributed to supporting a specific nominee. Resolution will be determined by FEC filings and verified news reports documenting the total contributions. If Musk donates to multiple candidates, each candidate's total is evaluated separately.

Background

Musk has been politically active in recent election cycles, including significant spending in 2024. The $400 million threshold represents a substantial commitment—for context, this would be among the largest individual contributions in modern U.S. presidential history. Campaign finance is tracked through Federal Election Commission (FEC) disclosures, which are publicly available at fec.gov.

Considerations

The definition of "donation" may include both direct contributions (limited to $3,300 per candidate under federal law) and Super PAC spending (unlimited). If Musk's support is split across multiple candidates or causes, the market evaluates whether any single nominee receives over $500 million in total support from him. The 2028 nominee may not be officially selected until the party conventions in summer 2028.