After Sinn Fein became the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly in the 2022 elections, and after the DUP spent two years agreed to reconvene the Assembly after blocking it for two years under the power sharing agreement, Michelle O’Neill has today become the First Minister of Northern Ireland.

Her appointment is significant since she becomes the first Irish nationalist in the role - all of her predecessors were Unionists:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Minister_and_deputy_First_Minister_of_Northern_Ireland

When will she be replaced as First Minister?

Market notes:

• If the Northern Ireland Assembly is dissolved again, this market will resolve to the date when someone who isn’t Michelle O’Neill takes over as First Minister rather than the date when she stops doing the job.

• An acting First Minister will not count towards this market, neither will a member of the Westminster government acting as First Minister during a period of “home rule” (the way members of Blair’s Cabinet such as Peter Hain did in the early 2000s)

• If the role of First Minister change name or scope but is still roughly analogous and O’Neill retains the role (eg. O’Neill become Prime Minister of Noethern Ireland without anyone else acting as FM or PM in between), this market will treat the role as being unchanged

• If the role of First Minister is abolished with no obvious successor role or to a role filled by someone who isn’t O’Neill, the market will resolve to that year.

• If you buy shares in “other”, you will automatically receive shares in any future years if O’Neill stays in the role for so long that they need to be split out!