ARK Invest just published a white paper called Platforms Of Innovation. The white paper contains many opportunities to bet on the economic impact of converging technologies.
This market allows to speculate on the predictions contained in the white paper with a focus on energy storage.
ARK defines Energy Storage as an "Innovation Platform", along with other four. Two technologies mainly benefit from this innovation platform:
Autonomous Mobility (basically robotaxis)
Advanced Battery Tech (electric batteries
They made various predictions regarding this innovation platform. I picked a few that could be potentially assessed in 2030:
Autonomous robotaxis have transformed global transport, as point-to-point transportation is available in nearly every country at an average price of ~$.50 per mile. ==> Resolved if robotaxis will be available in New York, Shanghai, San Paolo, London and Laos for an average of around or less than $0.5/miles adapted for inflation
Robotaxis have traveled 13 trillion vehicle miles ==> self explanatory
The number of autonomous vehicles facilitating this travel is ~100 million ==> self explanatory (at least ≈100m)
EVs sold annually is ~74 million
Supplying the EV OEMs, battery manufacturers generate revenue of $300 billion per year. Stationary energy storage requires a volume of batteries roughly equivalent to that consumed by EVs, generating another $300 billion in revenue. ==> Battery sales amount to a total of $600b
For all the options above, I'll consider them true if the figures in 2030 overcome ARK's expectations or miss them by max 10%.
Let me know if you would like to add other bets or if you think the options should be changed to better reflect the spirit of the white paper. I may change them accordingly.
Other markets on ARK's predictions:
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