Will we be able to prompt a Civilization game by April 2027?
Will we be able to prompt a Civilization game by April 2027?
6
Ṁ852027
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I found this discussion on X and thought it would make a great market:
https://x.com/neuralamp4ever/status/1900229985232617898?t=TR9UNO1rfoMvNog4VVJtjQ&s=19
It resolves Yes if by April 2027, someone is able to create a game like Civilization in less then 10 prompts, without any manual intervention.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will an expansion pack be released for Civilization 7 before July 2026?
51% chance
Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2025?
23% chance
Will Paradox release a grand strategy game that covers the year 632 as part of its unmodded timeline by the end of 2029?
45% chance
Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2035?
75% chance
Will Paradox release a NEW grand strategy game that covers the year 866 as part of its unmodded timeline by end 2029?
50% chance
Will Parkour Civilization 3 come out before the end of 2025?
47% chance
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
49% chance
Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
32% chance
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?
79% chance
Will Paradox Interactive publish a grand strategy game set in 2000s/2010s before 2031?
18% chance