i honestly don't anticipate most users who have been participating over the past 3 months to be around longer than a year or two unless manifold evolves into, co-opts, or is co-opted by, a different genre of social media.
1,000
1.00Worthwhile from a profit perspective? Not when I can make 10% in a day or two betting near the end of a month.
Worthwhile from a "isn't the point of prediction markets to come to better answers to questions it would be good to know the answer to than can be provided other ways? If not, why are we even doing this?" perspective? Sure.
Similar to how, in theory, market capitalism and profit maximization have socially good outcomes because markets allocate resources efficiently, but in reality there are lots of ways to make profits that don't fit the general notion of "good for society". And yet lots of social good does come from markets, and it's better than central planning in many cases.
EconTalk host Russ Roberts frequently talks about how social norms rather than written law constrain people, including in business, but too much of a focus on profit erodes those social norms.
Perhaps Manifold ought to develop social norms that it's good to bet on interesting questions you think it would be good to have an accurate answer to, even when you're not profit maximizing given other shorter term profit opportunities? At least, once you've got plenty of money in the bank. And also that it's good to bet based on your beliefs about the question being asked rather than what you believe will profit-maximize given how other people are likely to respond, whenever those two things are different.
I'm in an accumulating phase right now, but once I get to the point where I have more mana than I have time to search out short term profit opportunities, I'll mostly be betting on interesting questions. Still spend a significant chunk betting on interesting questions, too, because just trying to make mana go up is not very motivating.
Those are the most interesting questions, yet they're the least worthwhile to bet on if you're trying to climb up the ranks of Manifold by accumulating mana and attaining profit, as the system currently stands
For most people, most markets resolving 7+ years in the future are equivalent to markets resolving 70+ years in the future as far as trading is concerned.