Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Oceania before 2030?
Plus
16
Ṁ5522030
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Including any transcontinental countries.
"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.
Must qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, though changes to that map are not required for this question to resolve YES.
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