MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?
2
Ṁ1662
2027
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/3/

The full challenge is expected to be released in 2026. Resolves NO if the challenge is not released by then.

Resolves YES if the best score for an AI by the end of 2026 is at most half of the baseline for average humans.

#AGI
#Artificial Intelligence
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Comments

Related questions

Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
45% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
67% chance
Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?
40% chance
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will AGI undergo a hard take-off?
8% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?
20% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?
15% chance

Related questions

Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
45% chance
Will AGI undergo a hard take-off?
8% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
67% chance
Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?
20% chance
Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?
40% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?
15% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout