How many house seats will Democrats flip before the 2026 midterms?
How many house seats will Democrats flip before the 2026 midterms?
8
Ṁ2552026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
26%
0
32%
1
18%
2
12%
3
8%
4
4%
More than 4
Meaning in special elections. As of writing this, there are 4 seats open in the House that will be filled by special election. Two (both in Florida) were held by Republicans. If either special election is won by a Democrat (or someone who caucuses with the Democrats), that would count. The special election must be called by major news sources before polls open on Election Day 2026 to be elegible.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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