Will the USMNT win a World Cup by EOY 2050?
Will the USMNT win a World Cup by EOY 2050?
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48%
chance
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1W
1M
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Background
The United States Men's National Team (USMNT) has never advanced beyond the semifinals in a World Cup, with their best finish being 3rd place in 1930. The team has shown improvement in recent years, with a young core of players competing in top European leagues.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the USMNT wins the FIFA Men's World Cup in any tournament from 2026 through 2050, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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