Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?
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2040
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This market is in response to a political campaign "promise" made by Ron D. Santis, governor of Florida and US presidential hopeful, while campaigning for the Republican Presidential Primaries in 2023.

The Current Paths to US citizenship:

  1. Jus Soli: Any individual born in the United States or in its territories is granted U.S. citizenship automatically under the 14th Amendment, ratified in 1868 during Reconstruction. Jus soli, or right of soil, is one of the two forms of birthright citizenship codified into the US law.

  2. Jus Sanguinis: Any individual born to at least one U.S. citizen parent, regardless of the place of birth, may be granted U.S. citizenship. This is known as jus sanguinis, or right of blood. This form of birthright citizenship is codified into US law through the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1790.

  3. Naturalization: A person who is not a citizen by birth can apply for citizenship through a process called naturalization. This typically involves residing in the United States as a lawful permanent resident for a certain number of years, demonstrating good moral character, passing English and U.S. history and government tests, and taking an Oath of Allegiance to the United States.

  4. Through Parents' Naturalization: Children under 18 years old automatically become U.S. citizens when a parent naturalizes.

  5. Naturalization through Military Service: U.S. offers citizenship through military service under special provisions of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) of 1790. To be eligible, you must have served in the U.S. armed forces for one year at any time, or during periods of hostility, and received an Honorable or General Under Honorable Conditions discharge.

The process to amend the U.S. Constitution is complex and requires broad consensus. It necessitates the approval of two-thirds of both houses of Congress, and then ratification by three-fourths of the states, or alternatively, a constitutional convention can be called by two-thirds of the state legislatures. This high bar ensures that changes to the Constitution reflect a wide agreement across the U.S. and are not made lightly.

Jus Solis and the 14th Amendment seem to be the primary target of Governor D. Santis' campaign promise but his public statements have been vague on which form(s) of birthright citizenship he would revoke. His politics lean towards a preference for strong executive control over both state and local governments down to the city/town level where he has frequently removed local elected officials and has appointed political allies to fill vacancies. His attempts to assert control have extended to state funded educational institutions where he has attempted to shape the politics on campuses, and the social and political messaging of corporations operating in his state. This preference for executive control, along with his reverence for military service suggests that he might prefer to revoke all forms of birthright citizenship in favor of a solution like citizenship through military service.

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