I think this is a good measure of how much influence Trump/MAGA will have on the future of the Republican party. Will Trump endorse a candidate for the primaries who goes on to win the primary and become the 2028 Republican presidential candidate?

Some potential resolution cases:

• Trump does not endorse a candidate: N/A

• Trump runs himself and wins: Yes

• Trump endorses a third party candidate who becomes a serious candidate but does not win the Republican primary: No

• Trump endorses a Republican candidate who loses: No