Will 40% of world’s population or more live in authoritarian regimes before 2030?
Will 40% of world’s population or more live in authoritarian regimes before 2030?
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This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if 40% of the world's population or more live in countries that are classified as "authoritarian regimes" (score of less than 4.0) for any report for the 2020s (the last one for the 2020s is likely to be published in early 2030).
In the 2023 report, 39.4% of the world's population live under authoritarian regimes, an increase from the 2022 report where the number was 36.9%.
Here are the percentages published by The Economist in Democracy Index reports since 2010:
2023: 39.4% (+2.5)
2022: 36.9% (-0.2)
2021: 37.1% (+1.5)
2020: 35.6% (no change)
2019: 35.6% (no change)
2018: 35.6% (+1.6)
2017: 34.0% (+2.7)
2016: 32.7% (-1.4)
2015: 34.1% (-3.5)
2014: 37.6% (+0.6)
2013: 37.0% (-0.1)
2012: 37.1% (-0.5)
2011: 37.6% (+1.1)
2010: 36.5%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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