Will there be a major spike in protests in the US in 2025 (comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests)?
Will there be a major spike in protests in the US in 2025 (comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests)?
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This question will use data published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which runs the United States Crisis Monitor project.
For the purposes of this question, "a major spike in protests" means 1,000 or more demonstrations (protests and riots) in a single week in 2025, according to ACLED data.
The last time this threshold was passed was during the George Floyd protests, in May and June of 2020, visible as the only major spike in the ACLED's demonstration data from Jan 2020 to Mar 2024:
The largest protests of 2024 were Palestine/Israel demonstrations, which peaked at 643 demonstration events in any single week between April and May.
Will there be a major spike in protests in the United States in any week of 2024, according to ACLED data?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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