Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Plus
25
Ṁ10882029
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves "yes" if a major U.S. news outlet reports one or more human fatalities caused by a pathogen whose structure was invented by an ML model. A human must prompt the ML model to create the pathogen with the explicit intention to kill humans.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?
21% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2029?
74% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?
55% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?
44% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
24% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2029?
12% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029?
6% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?
8% chance
Will an engineered pathogen cause a pandemic before 2030?
7% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2029?
5% chance