Will Manifold price a 2024 US recession at >50% at the end of 2024?
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This is a derivative market of the below-linked market ("the underlying market"). It attempts to bring forward resolution by up to one year.
Although it will likely be reasonably clear at the end of 2024 whether the US entered a recession, official announcements from the NBER can take some time. Thus the underlying market resolves at the end of 2025 at the latest.
This market resolves YES if the time-weighted average price of the underlying market over the final 168 hours (=1 week) of 2024, US eastern time, is strictly greater than 50%. Price data will be obtained and processed as floating point numbers using the Manifold API. A script will be provided to allow verification of the result.
The underlying market:
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