Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
Mini
5
Ṁ772032
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Robin Hanson thinks "there's a least a 10% chance you will hear of this breakthrough many times over the next decade".
I'm no astrophysicist, so I'll mostly rely on whatever I can learn by looking at pop science and citations.
Provisional resolution criteria: resolves YES if either gets 300 citations, or if either is mentioned in Ars Technica on or after 1 Jan 2024, NO otherwise. These criteria can change if someone gives me a better suggestion, until 1 May 2023.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will this paper: “ Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely” be disproven or severely held in doubt before 2025
35% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
32% chance
Will Manifold consider the same paper to be the most important paper published in 2024 when polled in 2025 and 2030?
24% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
43% chance
Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?
47% chance
Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
19% chance
Will the Reimann Hypotheses be Resolved by the year 2035
35% chance
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
31% chance
Will a graviton be directly observed in a peer-reviewed paper before 2100?
38% chance
Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?
26% chance