The 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability is a list of 200 concrete research questions in neural net interpretability, proposed in December 2022 by Neel Nanda. (A centralized table of all problems is available on this Google Sheet and this Coda document.) As of market creation (July 20, 2023), only 12 problems are listed as having existing work.

This market resolves PROB to the fraction of all problems that are listed as having existing work on or dating from before January 1, 2025. I plan to use the Coda document to resolve this market (unless it goes down or becomes obviously untrustworthy, in which case I'll try the Google Sheet instead). If there's no way at all that I can find out what problems were solved by 2025, or if human civilization collapses before then, then this market resolves N/A.

To make New Years' Day 2025 more interesting, this market closes exactly 42 minutes after midnight EST.