Non-resolving market; acting as a survey; asking people to submit any less-mainstream beliefs; see if the manifold crowd will support those beliefs or not.
Submitting answer =/= believing an answer
It is ok to submit an answer you don't believe in to gauge how other people feel about it.
You could also buy YES if you think its underpriced and will likely become more popular, doesn't have to indicate belief
P.S. If someone has an option they'd like to submit but don't want to submit it themselves, DM me, I'll add it for you.
1,000
1.00@Shelvacu Tell me you live in / are from California without telling me you live in / are from California amirite?
@Maniuser After more careful reading, it seems that the % is reflecting the market weighting given the entire portfolio of opinions, rather than what % of people actually support the belief. So while this item would not receive 90% given the setup, the fact remains that it's a position that would have higher popular support than almost all other positions listed, including those ranked higher.
Shortly after i created this market, there were 2 posts created on r/slatestarcodex that ask more or less the same thing (I'm p sure one of you lot created it xD). Anyway, might enjoy reading them.
Post 1 :
What do you believe that few other people believe?
Post 2:
@firstuserhere this seems much less useful than either of those though since there's no quality/plausibility filter.
I encourage people to go check out @JosephNoonan 's market on this same topic. It serves as a better interface for getting credence for individual options and will likely end up being more useful
People post actually unconventional views that most people actually disagree with 2023 challenge.
@NicoDelon Actually some of these views are so conventional that I hesitate to buy NO shares on them non-anonymously.
@firstuserhere Social desirability bias is such that I don’t want to be the one correctly pricing such views. Maybe I should create an alt!
@NicoDelon Though I’m realizing maybe I should actually buy YES not because I agree but because they’re very vanilla views.
I poorly counted and got, counting buckets of the percent of the population that'd agree with the view:
15 >50% / 16 >25% / 14 >10% / 8 >1% / 2 <1%
Most of >1% and (i think) all of <1% weren't serious though.
I'd encountered all of them before except the honey and sound system ones. And even for honey, I've seen 'artificial flavors are good and consumers deserve to be tricked' in general.
I know some of you guys have beliefs that I haven't heard of before.
somewhat interesting ones: ai exterminating the human race might not be so bad (but that's a lot more common than most would naively expect, and also a lot less obviously false than most people want it to be), dialetheism (but that's a meme), mira's post (just because there are, rarely, other people who genuinely believe that), alcohol tax, pet immoral (strong arguments there tbh), nuclear family bad, car sound system bad, alcohol (also arguable)
@NicoDelon At this point yes, as that is what usually gets engagement, but I'd like to see people submit more unconventional ideas too
@firstuserhere So do you think at equilibrium the proposition ranked last is the least conventional?
@NicoDelon No, because this type of market structure is not ideal for this question. Coincidentally, <1 hr (approx) after this market, independent/unlinked free response market type was released and someone is working on setting up a question similar to this using that market type. That should give a better credence for each option individually, than this setup.
@Soli unfortunately this market incentivizes putting semi-conventional ideas forth if you want profit