Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?

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528

Ṁ2.2m

resolved Dec 28

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YES

ALL

@firstuserhere This is absolutely doable and I think you should go for it! If you really want to pull it off you'll definitely need to dedicate a full day for it - I mean just do the math, we're talking like 11 or 12 hours walking minimum. You should definitely do some planning for the day of and at least a bit of training for a month or so in advance. If you were really fit and did frequent long distance running (>10 miles at least once a week), I think you could pretty much just pick a random day and do it. This really isn't in the same class as running a marathon or ultra, since there's much less of a cardio component, and you aren't getting the pounding on your joints that you get from running. That said, it will still be a pretty serious challenge. It sounds like you're at least in okay shape and have walked lots of steps in the past, but not in good enough shape that things will turn out well if you just wing it. I think the most likely reasons you don't pull this off are: you just aren't that serious about it and never commit a day to doing it (in that case why make the market and bet on yourself though?) or decide it isn't worth the effort you commit to it but don't plan well, aren't keeping sufficient pace, and quit part way through you commit, plan it out, and start, but are physically unable to do it - imo most likely issues are foot pain or muscle cramping in your legs that make it too hard to keep going you start and get pretty far but hit a mental wall part way through and talk yourself out of finishing - in particular, there's some risk that once you pass your brother's record, you'll decide that's good enough and not go the rest of the way. I think if you're serious about this, you can get around all of those things. It's hard to say how serious you are about this, but you have done 50k+ steps previously which is no small thing, and you made this market, so I assume you at least intend to give it a shot. Some random bits of advice: You probably should build up some endurance in terms of "time on your feet" for a month or so in advance. Maybe one day where you hit 20k each week for a few weeks, then 30k, and then 50k. If you can do 50k without big issues, I think you should be able to jump to 100k from there. If you try and jump straight to 100k with no buildup, I think there's a good chance it will be too painful or you'll have severe cramping or something I recommend using a treadmill, at least for a lot of it. That way you won't have to think about where you're going, and walking is the 'default', so you'll end up being more time efficient than if you walk outside. Plus no hills. And you can read a book or watch something and mindlessly knock out a few hours of walking You can also figure out in advance how many steps you get at different paces and plan out your attempt a little better. E.g. would you prefer 4mph - about 8k steps/hour - for 3 hours, or 3mph - about 6k steps/hour - for 4 hours? Faster pace is harder but earns you more rest Schedule out the steps a bit - set some targets for different times of day so can make sure you're on pace to hit 100k by 24 hrs. It will totally suck if you get to 70 or 80k and realize you're not quite going to have enough time to finish Probably plan for less rest early in the day, and increasing rest / more frequent rest towards the end. Aim to get to 50k well before the 12 hour mark. Higher chance of slowdowns towards the end Once you get within 10-25k of the end, motivation should get easier because you're basically watching a countdown clock. 40-70k will probably be the hardest stretch because you'll be sore but not yet seeing the light at the end of the tunnel Make sure you're eating throughout the day and drinking lots of water - you're going to burn a huge number of calories and if you aren't eating enough, the back half is going to be awful Recruit some people to join you for different 10k stretches, or plan other things to distract you / entertain you throughout the day Good luck and have fun, I hope you pull it off!

@firstuserhere the way to do this is to just pick a day, wake up bright and early and do nothing, absolutely nothing except for walk for the entire day until you hit 100k steps and then rest the next couple days. You won't regularly be averaging above 20k steps.

I watched through most "100,000 step challenge" videos on YT. Here's my takeaway: - For fit persons (i.e. those who have YT channels devoted to running or weightlifting) this is dooable. Most find it challenging, some find it extremely challenging. About half are not able to complete it in the same calendar day (i.e. they finish past midnight) - For individuals with a "normal" BMI, and no sign of being interested in fitness, this is extremely challenging. Most are not able to complete it, and those that do complete it, do so after midnight (i.e. next calendar day). It's consistetly described as "the hardest thing I have ever done", even by those who have previously run marathons. - I wasn't able to find overweight of unfit people attempting 100,000 steps. I suspect overweight individuals would have little chance of completing this.

I did this in the summer and made a market on it (it’s my most recent question made). Mine was a little more open ended and I just wanted to get as many steps as possible, ended up with a little over 110k. It is possible, I didn’t have any major injuries, and I think you can do it. My advice is: wake up early (like REALLY early, I woke up at 1 am), make sure you have proper fuel (I ate about one clif bar and drank one gatorade per hour for the first 8 or so hours), and get a bunch of steps early so you don’t end up needing to walk a bunch at the end. Also avoid blisters, I don’t actually know how to do this, you can walk through it but it sucks.

For transparency, I’m posting my YES logic because I want this market to correct up a bit before leagues end. Not so I can sell, just so my unrealized profit goes up. My league is unbelievably competitive, and I want to be in Masters more than I want to keep accumulating cheap shares (and I’ve already invested like half my net worth). I think a pretty big thing being overlooked by this market is information from https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/experimental-firstuserheres-guessin?r=anVuZQ The isolation experiment and desert month both suggest to me that FUH is very adventurous and challenges are not new to them. Being able to hold their breath for 2+ minutes also suggests potential endurance that would make this challenge less challenging. FUH is the person with the most information about this market’s potential outcomes and is the only person who controls how it resolves. FUH has open buy orders looking to add to over 350k shares. On a smaller side note, it’s odd to me that people are weighing YouTubers’ experiences with this so heavily. Most of them are going to be dramatic and engineer whatever conclusion is best for engagement, regardless of whether they can physically complete the challenge. I don’t think this market is a sure thing. There are timelines (injury, this whole thing is a way for FUH to lose mana and quit the site, etc) that could prevent even an attempt. But I do think it is -much- more likely to resolve YES than NO, evidenced by my bet being unusually large relative to my typically conservative bankroll management. [link preview]

@firstuserhere enough making the fucking markets. make an attempt at a ton of steps

Why is this market in the "Sex and Love" group?

One huge crux for me on this market: am I correct in understanding the step counter resets at mindnight?

As someone who has been walking on a daily basis for over 30 years, 100k seems to be quite an ambitious goal. More seriously, I’m an avid hiker and climber who has hiked (on trail) >30 miles in a single day. Even on flat pavement, grass, or a treadmill, this is a very difficult target. Especially within the parameters specified in comments. (“Real” / “normal” steps all occurring between 0000-2359 on one day.) This is, by far, the largest bet I’ve ever placed on Manifold.

Getting into good shape, better stamina. Feel much better than just a few weeks ago. Easily able to do 10k in no time and i remember beginning of market my average was way lower. Gonna try a 50k attempt over the weekend, let's see how it goes :)

@firstuserhere how did it go?

@firstuserhere seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December so seems likely he won't unless it's a market motivated last minute attempt that goes right.

Folks seem to be having a hard time writing encouraging comments. It'll be hard but you can do it! Don't let the naysayers bring you down!

https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a36751439/walking-100000-steps-fitness-challenge-24-hours-results/ “For the last two years, I have tried to get in at least 15,000 steps in every day. Many days I would be able to beat this mark, getting to the 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, 35,000, and even the 40,000 marks.” “By 8:40 a.m. Steven had walked the distance of a full marathon. And he was feeling it. “At this point my body was tired. My feet were swollen, the shins just hurt, my lower back ached, my neck and shoulder there tight, but I wanted to try and get as much done in the cool of the day as I could,” Steven writes.” He did 105k steps in 21 hours, so it’s feasible. I remember having trouble to complete 30k while preparing for a marathon. And then finishing the marathon because commitment and such. So maybe I’m wrong and I will lose my mana. Hope @firstuserhere takes it.

Hasn't passed 30k

@mattyb Honestly this should be much lower, however I am insolvent

Completed 50k steps challenge

+15%

ndabholkar thinks its very hard

-15.0%

I will be using a Garmin forerunner 955 non-solar watch, to measure the steps, most likely.

Here is an auto updating doc with daily steps + a graph of progress.

P.S. Please check the latest version of the doc available at this link, or contact me, before resolving this market (in cases where I'm inactive for 7+ days).

Graph:

The step counter starts and stops at midnight.

Real steps, real walking only

#Personal Goals

#2023 Market of the Year Candidates

#firstuserhere

#Unranked

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

#firstuserhere's personal manifold corner

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predicted NO

Looking forward to the 200k step market next year.

predicted NO

Well, I have lost vast amounts of mana, but at least in a fun way.

predicted YES

nice job!

predicted NO

Why is everyone so amazed that a 23 year old can walk? I've been doing this since I was a year old

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch We’re just amazed at how much you lost.

predicted NO

So in this market, I:

Was wrong (I bet NO at pretty much every point)
Made a profit of 636 mana anyway
Made 7% of all trades
Completely messed up my calibration
This is what happens when you place a LOT of limit orders! 😂

predicted NO

Well done @firstuserhere! This should go down in Manifold history for most difficult challenge motivated by a market

predicted NO

@AmmonLam for walking? I started doing that at 1 year old

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch the number just keeps going down

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Were you already a sore loser when you were a baby?

predicted YES

Based asf congrats

predicted NO

As said yesterday in discord, you're absolutely INSANE.

I'm new to Manifold, just doing it here and there for about 1.5 months, but this showed to me that seemingly simple bets can turn out to be actually very enjoyable events.

I don't know you and I've lost my bet, yet I'm actually proud. Proud of having been wrong in such a remarkable way, proud of your achievement.

So yeah, I'll proudly wear this, until I'm out of it again! :D

Thanks for that!

predicted YES

WELL DONE 😎

predicted NO

Congrats 🥳

predicted NO

Is Mira dead?

predicted YES

@or How are you feeling?

predicted NO

Congratulations! Serves me right for doubting

predicted NO

@Marnix same

predicted YES

Well done @firstuserhere ! Truly an inspiring result. You have worked so hard at this and you now deserve all the satisfaction. You're at the top of the world today!