If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?
If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?
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If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indices?
2023 scores
WPFI - 71.22
Corruption Perceptions Index - 69
Democracy Index - 7.85
Resolve Criteria
Resolves YES if, following the election of Donald Trump, the United States scores lower on ALL three of the World Press Freedom Index, Corruption Perceptions Index, and The Economist Democracy Index when compared to their 2023 values.
Resolves NO if any of the 2026 scores is higher than or equal to their respective 2023 value.
If any of these scores is not published in 2026, I will most likely N/A unless there is a very compelling argument otherwise.
N/A if Donald Trump does not become the President.
These markets are meant to ascertain the risk of increased US authoritarianism in a Donald Trump presidency versus a Joe Biden presidency.
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opened a Ṁ500 YES at 91% order
Can you add the #US democracy tag?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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