Will I get another Manifold referal before the end of this year ?
Mini
2
Ṁ20Jan 1
43%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I currently have 13 refered users. This seems to be due to a bug. For example, the Hilary Clinton account I "referred"predates mine.
This question resolves to YES if I get a 14th referal before the end of the year, otherwise it resolves to no.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
You used to be able to choose who referred you after you signed up
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?
63% chance
Will I spend real money on Manifold by the end of the year?
20% chance
Will I become a partner on Manifold by the end of the year?
13% chance
Will I be accepted as a Manifold partner by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?
28% chance
Will I reach the top 100 profits leaderboard on Manifold this year?
14% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2024?
4% chance