Will the release of any 2024 Presidential election model sway Manifold’s forecast by at least 5 percentage points?
Mini
7
Ṁ133Dec 1
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if I believe that the release of a model swayed Manifold’s election forecast by at least 5 percentage points.
I’ll be looking at several of the major election markets about who will win to make this determination, not just one. And I’ll expect the change to last for at least 24 hours.
I won’t bet in case this seems borderline and requires subjectivity.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
56% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
50% chance
Which forecast/model will the Super Model find most profitable vs. Polymarket for the 2024 presidential election?
Will a model predict the swing state results in the 2028 US Presidential Election, based on non-swing states vote count?
52% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
1% chance
Which election forecast is modeling uncertainty better?
POLL