Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Mini
5
Ṁ3212030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
3%
Song, T., Jia, Y., Yu, G. et al. Unconventional superconducting quantum criticality in monolayer WTe2. Nat. Phys. (2024)
2%
Amor, C., Fernández-Maestre, I., Chowdhury, S. et al. Prophylactic and long-lasting efficacy of senolytic CAR T cells against age-related metabolic dysfunction. Nat Aging (2024)
1.9%
Wang, J., Gangavarapu, T., Yan, J. et al. MambaByte: Token-free Selective State Space Model. arXiv:2401.13660 (2024)
6%
Grau-Moya, J., Genewein, T., Hutter, M. et al. Learning Universal Predictors. arXiv:2401.14953 (2024)
3%
Wang, L., Zhao, J., Du, Y. et al. PoCo: Policy Composition from and for Heterogeneous Robot Learning. arXiv:2402.02511 (2024)
6%
Xu, R., Sun, Y., Chen, C. et al. Robust Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift via Physics-Informed Structural Causal Model. arXiv:2403.15025 (2024)
78%
Resolution: In January 2030, after this market is closed, Manifold will be polled with the top 5 answers from this market. When the poll closes one week later, this market will resolve to the winner of that poll.
If one of the top 5 answers to this market is not an actual paper first published in 2024 it will be skipped and the next paper ranking paper will be included in the poll instead.
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