Background. YouGov measures "favourability" using questions of the form: "Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following? [Keir Starmer]" They define a person's "favourability rating" as the share of respondents with a favourable opinion of the person minus the share with an unfavourable opinion. As of 13 December 2024 (the last time these ratings were measured in 2024), 25% had a favourable opinion of Starmer and 66% had an unfavourable opinion, leading to a net favourability rating of -41.
This page shows the history of Starmer's favourability ratings. Will Starmer end 2025 with a better rating than -41?
Resolution criteria.
This question resolves YES if the last net favourability rating of Keir Starmer for 2025 that is published before the market resolves is strictly higher than -41. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
To provide time for YouGov to update the 2025 net favourability ratings on their website, this market resolves on 1 February 2026. Any updates to the ratings after this point are irrelevant to the market's resolution. Any updates to the ratings that are based on responses from 2026 are also irrelevant to the market's resolution.
For more information on YouGov's favourability ratings, see this article.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00