Before 2032, will at least $30 billion (2021 USD) in new funding be authorized via new legislation toward US pandemic preparedness?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2032, at least $30.0 billion in new funding (i.e., above baseline levels) is authorized by the US Congress toward pandemic preparedness via new legislation. The funding can be authorized in one piece of legislation or over multiple pieces of legislation.

For this question, USD will be inflation-indexed to 2021 USD.

Note that this question asks about authorization of new funds, as opposed to appropriation. The difference is that authorization is a process "done by Congress via legislation that can establish, continue, or modify an agency, program, or activity for a fixed or indefinite period of time" while appropriations are "done by Congress via legislation that authorizes agencies to make payments from the federal Treasury." In other words, authorizations occur through new legislation and make it so that money can be appropriated — and that money must then actually be appropriated for government agencies to spend it. This question just asks about authorization.

Also note that it would count if the funding authorization is rolled into legislation that is not primarily related to pandemic preparedness, for example a renewed Build Back Better reconciliation attempt. The focus of this question is on whether at least $30B in new funding will be authorized via any legislative process.

For the purposes of this question, a broad and inclusive view will be taken with respect to what types of authorized funding would count as "pandemic preparedness funding" so long as the funding meaningfully relates to one of the following 12 areas of the American Pandemic Preparedness plan (pages 20 and 21):

• Vaccines

• Therapeutics

• Diagnostics

• Early warning

• Real-time Monitoring

• Strengthen the US Public Health System by Expanding Capabilities to Respond to Public Health Emergencies

• Global Health Security Capacity to Support Pandemic Preparedness

• Personal Protective Equipment

• US Capacity to Produce Vital Supplies

• Strengthen Biosafety and Biosecurity, and Reduce Catastrophic Biological Threats

• Improve the Regulatory Environment

• Manage the Missio

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