[Metaculus] Will any of the 20 most valuable US public companies file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?
Mini
9
Ṁ401
Jan 2
8%
chance

Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.

(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)

  1. Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62

  2. Amazon.com Inc AMZN 800.88

  3. Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23

  4. Apple Inc AAPL 739.27

  5. Facebook Inc FB 354.29

  6. Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95

  7. JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44

  8. Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62

  9. Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79

  10. Walmart Inc WMT 281.98

  11. Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85

  12. UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64

  13. Visa Inc V 238.97

  14. Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51

  15. Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95

  16. Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50

  17. Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55

  18. AT&T Inc T 223.22

  19. Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33

  20. Intel Corporation INTC 214.2

Note: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.

If any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.

This question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?

For a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: Chapter 7, Chapter 11.

Resolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00