Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as YES if, in Meta's 2024 Q4 Quarterly Adversarial Threat Report, Meta claims that there was at least one "coordinated inauthentic behavior" that

• specifically pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election, and

• Meta suspects was primarily conducted via AI.

"Pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election" will be interpreted broadly - could be misinformation about candidates, about voting practices, about voting tallies, about fraud, etc.

"Primarily conducted via AI" here means that Meta suspects that the "inauthentic behavior" was primarily written by AI, not humans. Presumably, but not necessarily, this means a large language model (LLM) attack involving a large amount of content.

Meta need not confirm their presumptions. For the question to resolve positively it suffices that the Meta report claims as much.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.