The current coalition is a grand coalition between Democrats and Republicans, excluding far-right Republicans in the majority formed after 2020. Will the coalition mostly stay intact?

Resolves to the spirit of the market: does not have to follow to the letter the following conditions, but here are some guidelines.

If the far-right members are part of the grand coalition, this will resolve N/A. If the coalition primarily consists of Republicans, and the Democrats that join are bush caucus members, resolves NO.

Independents will be counted based on ideology.

To determine new Senators' ideology:

New members that are elected, who declare their intention to join the caucus/majority coalition or support members of the caucus, will be counted as part of the caucus. We may also look at their opponents' opposition to joining the caucus or the majority coalition.

If no coalition is formed before the 2026 election, resolves N/A

Since this market is pretty subjective, I will not bet in this.