Will the fallowing be components of South Korea's electoral system prior to their next presidential election
Will the fallowing be components of South Korea's electoral system prior to their next presidential election
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Ṁ8902028
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1W
1M
ALL
87%
Party lists [currently in use]
85%
Single winner FPTP districts [currently in use]
85%
Proportional balancing seats [currently in use]
85%
Some form of parallel voting (where multiple electoral systems are used independent of each other) [currently in use]
85%
Closed lists [currently in use]
85%
FPTP voting for presidential elections [currently in use]
66%
All the same components of the current system (i.e. no electoral change is passed)
34%
A rule prohibiting (or attempting to prohibit) parties from creating satellite parties
34%
Open lists
34%
Any form of ranked voting used to elect the legislature or president
34%
Single non transferable vote (1 vote per multiple seats)
34%
Non-party list multi-winner districts
28%
An increase in the portion of PR balancing seats prior to February 2019 or an increase in the maximum potential portion of balancing seats if a system is used where the number of balancing seats is allowed to vary
28%
An increase in the portion of seats elected in parallel using party list PR prior to February 2019
24%
Any system with proportional balancing seats where the balancing seats are tied to the vote totals from the non proportional seats (ex. the mixed single vote system used in the 2019 Thailand election)
15%
A runoff for presidential elections
15%
Any form of runoff used to elect the legislature or president
15%
A rated voting method (ex. approval voting) presidential elections
14%
Single transferable vote (a form of ranked voting)
13%
Any form of rated voting used to elect the legislature or president
Since political parties in South Korea are currently discuss electoral reform measures next week in a bid to fix the problems with the current additional member proportional representation system, I figured I would make a market about it including the currently discussed reforms along with many other potential (though very unlikely) reforms I chose to include as well.
Currently discussed proposals are listed here
https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230320000800
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/12/113_342977.html
As well as the discussion of the use of runoffs here
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/04/30/why-electoral-runoffs-would-improve-south-koreas-democracy/
Oh and the current system for reference
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_South_Korean_legislative_election#New_system
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I recognize that options like approval and SPAV are just not going happen. I just added them because I am a fan. Feel free to bet them into oblivion
answered1y
Any non FPTP voting system for presidential elections
Forgot I added this option as it is redundant. There is already FPTP voting for presidential elections which is the inverse of this option. Resolving it as n/a
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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