I'm referring to this market:

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener?r=cm9ibQ

I want to know if my own idea of what qualifies as a "full high quality movie" matches @ScottAlexander's (the market creator).

The criteria here is simple, I'll decide how I would resolve that market, and if it matches the actual resolution, this resolves YES. This market will be interesting if we're somewhere in the grey area between an obvious YES or NO, where we might disagree.

I'll be reasonably open about my opinions. I'll answer questions in the comments here. I've made significant bets, as a fraction of my net worth, in that market already, and I will continue betting there. I may share comments and opinions there, in the Manifold discord, or other places online. I'm happy to comment on major AI releases. And if something is released that I think would resolve that market early, I'll post that here. I'm doing this in contrast to the relatively black box resolution criteria on the other market; the description is short, and despite some strong opinions in the comments, it's not clear to me how Scott will judge non-obvious outcomes.

I will not bet in this market, I will continue betting in the linked market. I am not making any claim of being unbiased on this topic, this market is partially about understanding my bias.