Will Outline VPN be blocked in Russia at any point in 2023 or 2024?
Mini
2
Ṁ25
Dec 31
34%
chance

I wonder whether Russia will have technology to identify shadowsocks, or whatever protocol Outline uses at that time. Whether this technology is widely deployed doesn't matter for this question.

Resolution criteria:

https://meduza.io/ or https://zona.media/ report that Outline was blocked by protocol by at least one ISP. A wording like "users report" is enough. These sites translate some of their articles to English, but for this market a Russian-only article will do.

If an article appears, I will wait 14 days before resolving. If the same news source acknowledges their report was false, I will not resolve based on the original article.

Context:

Some ISPs in Russia currently block OpenVPN and WireGuard protocols, but shadowsocks which Outline uses is known to be more resistant to blocking.

A recent article from zona.media: https://en.zona.media/article/2023/08/08/vpn

A recent article from Meduza: https://meduza.io/paragraph/2023/08/09/moy-vpn-perestal-rabotat-chto-delat-kak-iskat-rabotayuschiy

A forum where VPN blocking in Russia is discussed: https://ntc.party/ (will not be used for resolution, but can be used for trading)

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00