Which cryonics provider has highest chance of survival?
[resolves in a few months, clever market mechanism]
1
Ṁ1152026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
11%
Alcor, UP
13%
Alcor, DOWN
14%
Sparks Brain Preservation (Oregon Cryonics), UP
11%
Sparks Brain Preservation (Oregon Cryonics), DOWN
9%
Tomorrow Bio / EBF, UP
9%
Tomorrow Bio / EBF, DOWN
11%
Cryonics Institute, UP
11%
Cryonics Institute, DOWN
11%
I'm currently in the process of choosing a cryonics provider. Immediately before selecting one, I'll note my probability of survival from the market here:
https://manifold.markets/spider/will-i-wake-up-cryonics
I'll then post my choice in the comments of both markets, and check the probability of survival after this news, by taking the time-average of the market value between 1 and 5 weeks after posting my selection.
If my odds have increased following the announcement, [CHOSEN COMPANY] UP resolves yes. If they've decreased, [CHOSEN COMPANY] DOWN resolves yes.
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