Background

Autogynephilia is a sexual attraction to being female. Phil Illy wrote a book about autogynephilia, and intends to run a campaign to popularize the concept. Furthermore, the Google Trends interest has arguably been going up lately, compared to in the past:

Thus, it raises the possibility that autogynephilia will become "a big thing".

Resolution criteria

Let's define X = the 2026-2028 average Google Trends Interest in autogynephilia,

define Y = the 2022 average Google Trends Interest in autogynephilia.

This market resolves PROB of X/(X+Y).

Interpretation

50% means that the interest has remained flat, 66% means that the interest has doubled, and 33% means that the interest has halved. Due to the nonlinearity, there are rapidly diminishing returns; a 10x increase has nearly the same resolution as a 100x increase. A bigger conversion table can be seen below:

0.05 - 0.05

0.07 - 0.07

0.08 - 0.07

0.11 - 0.1

0.14 - 0.12

0.19 - 0.16

0.24 - 0.19

0.31 - 0.24

0.41 - 0.29

0.53 - 0.35

0.69 - 0.41

0.9 - 0.47

1.16 - 0.54

1.51 - 0.6

1.97 - 0.66

2.56 - 0.72

3.33 - 0.77

4.33 - 0.81

5.62 - 0.85

7.31 - 0.88

9.5 - 0.9

12.35 - 0.93

16.06 - 0.94

20.88 - 0.95

27.14 - 0.96

35.28 - 0.97

45.87 - 0.98

59.63 - 0.98

77.51 - 0.99

100.77 - 0.99