Will MCTS methods by used by any frontier LLM by EOY 2024
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5
Ṁ204Jan 1
25%
chance
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1W
1M
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Resolves YES on any public confirmation that they are using such methods, NO if no confirmation exists by EOY
Demis saying that they’re trying to incorporate planning/MCTS: https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/
Noam Brown saying similar thing: https://twitter.com/polynoamial/status/1676971503261454340
Similar resolution criteria (definition of frontier, etc.) to https://manifold.markets/marcer/will-dpo-or-an-explicitly-dpobased?r=dGhlc2hvcnRicmVhZA
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