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US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026?
7
Ṁ205
2026
10%
chance
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Inspired by: https://caithrin.substack.com/p/10-ownership-of-intel-should-worry

I'm not entirely sure how to resolve complex mechanisms of ownership - I wouldn't count eg: the govt as an LP to a fund owning this share. Ask a question, or suggest a mechanism if you're unsure of resolution.

This would definitely resolve YES if an Intel-style equity-for-subsidy deal happens leading to the federal govt owning >5%.

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#OpenAI
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