At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Yakutia or Sakha (or something similar) be a member of the UN?
At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Yakutia or Sakha (or something similar) be a member of the UN?
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Something like "Republic of Sakha", "Sakha federation", "Yakut republic" etc. would also count.
The purpose of this market is to predict if the Sakha republic would secede from Russia.
If a country with a similar name is member of the UN that has no relation whatsoever to the Sakha republic that is currently part of Russia, this is not enough to trigger a YES resolution. This question refers to some kind of descendant of the current Sakha republic.
Check out my similar markets about Siberia in general, as well as Chechnya
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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