Link to a market with safe profit, and a short explanation why it is so safe.
I will give 5 Mana for any market with solid argument, and remaining profit:
5% profit if the market ends in the next month
10% of it ends before 2025
20% of it ends before 2030
In addition I'll bet on those markets, allowing you to liquidate your position and materialize the profit
1,000
1.00Not the juiciest return, but you could bet on me: https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-i-mattyb-promote-to-masters-in?r=bWF0dHli
This is safe (as most things with a 20% return in <1mo) as this isnt actually the goal I’m shooting for. I’m trying to win the league overall for a must less certain bet: https://manifold.markets/mattyb/in-which-season-will-i-finish-below?r=bWF0dHli
My profit graph really hasn’t gone down, and I supplement my league points with trader bonuses, which can’t go down. Why not be bullish on me 😃?
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/is-this-new-proof-that-p-np-valid
I've looked at the proof myself and it's clearly wrong. The overwhelming majority of betters and commenters agree with me, as does the complexity theory community at large (implicitly, by ignoring the alleged proof). The only risk is that this market might not meet the formal resolution criteria for some time.
The uncharismatic challenger key here is pretty safe: https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/which-keys-will-the-democratic-cand
Lichtman already rated Trump as uncharistmatic twice, and if anything Trump is less charismatic now than he was.
Also https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-israel-annex-any-part-of-north?r=MDQ4Mg, knowing the political situation is the majority of public & representatives will be against it, and the decades we have West Bank without annexation. > 20%, ends at 2024 end
I believe https://manifold.markets/cash/will-us-unemployment-be-15-or-more?r=MDQ4Mg is a safe bet, since it requires US unemployment to reach unprecedented levels by 2030. Even during the pandemic it didn't happen.
It's on exactly 20% right now