Good luck resolving all of these without lots of drama due to tons of semantic ambiguities 🙃

It's an erotic invasion 😂

https://www.amazon.com/Bisexually-Pounded-Mysterious-Jersey-Drones-ebook/dp/B0DQQX48KZ

@uair01 the degree of my surprise that this exists reveals my gross miscalibration

@d4hines Tingle is a national treasure.

@JesWolfe are commercial jets themselves "designed to look like a commercial jet" or is this only true if they are other objects designed to masquerade as jets

@DavidTucker Yes.

I bought "belong to a large company" yes thinking most of them are just airplanes, and airplanes belong to large companies. Perhaps everyone else interpreted that differently from me lol.

@Mana how large is "large"? https://companiesmarketcap.com puts the largest one, Delta, at #510 in the world.

Companies ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com

Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics

Think it could be adversaries trying to force the US's hand into revealing what anti-drone tech they have. I also think there's a good chance this happened before (e.g. Gatwick/Heathrow shutdowns in the UK).

In that framing, whipping up hysteria + causing disruption is desirable and part of the playbook

At least when there is a gov shut down we can rule out if it is them or not operating them.

Mass hysteria:

(6) Do Mass Hysteria and Conspiratorial Thinking Explain New Jersey Drone Scare? | Update & Analysis - YouTube

Belong to a foreign gov @ 5%, belong to China @ 20%?

Do the counting props count each other? Can I resist asking “will three or more statements that don’t count themselves resolve yes?” This is heady stuff.

@HastingsGreer I'm out of mana, but I'd like to add something like "more options before the alphabetically median one resolve YES than after it"

https://nypost.com/2024/12/16/us-news/nypd-recovers-massive-drone-found-abandoned-in-brooklyn/
One for the "startup" camp, albeit grounded.

@lxgr A Ga-68 pin source was lost in shipment on December 2nd in New Jersey: https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/event/2024/20241213en.html

There are possible parallels to a case in 2023 in Australia, where a Caesium-137 source was lost and recovered via vehicle-mounted detection equipment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Australian_radioactive_capsule_incident

These should add up to 100%, right? 🤔

@4fa honestly no clue because there could be some drones that use cellular networks and some that don't...

@benshindel Good point!

@benshindel That's a problem for ~all props here: Since the majority of drones (or "drones") seen/reported by people are probably not the drones they're looking for, it's unclear if these will be included for prop resolution or not.

In other words, do the props need to be true for at least one, the majority, all, or a specific subset of all drones?

@4fa One of the questions could resolve N/A and the other one not

@lxgr Yeah this is a major problem with determining truth here. It comes down to what set of items "official sources" decide are "the mystery drones flying over New Jersey".

The FBI is "investigating" it.

@10thOfficial is it worth making a distinction between the drones the FBI in Newark started investigating in Nov 20, leading them to ask for tips, and the explainable drone sightings amidst the 4,900 tips they discarded?

In other words, a lot of these observations are about drones, but not the drones we’re looking for?