This market resolves to "Yes" if Russia shoots down an F-16 fighter jet over Ukraine before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025. The incident must involve an internationally recognized F-16 fighter jet being shot down while it is in the airspace of Ukraine, as recognized by international law and the majority of the United Nations member states.

1. Definition of Event:

   • An F-16 fighter jet must be confirmed to be shot down by Russian military forces.

   • The F-16 must be airborne and within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine at the time of the incident.

   • If the F-16 is hit by a drone, another aircraft, or any means other than being shot down by Russian forces, it does not count towards this resolution.

2. Source of Confirmation:

   • The downing of the F-16 must be reported and verified by credible sources, including but not limited to international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC), official statements from NATO, the Ukrainian government, and independent military analysts.

   • The resolution of this market will be based on reports from at least two independent, internationally recognized news sources or an official statement from a recognized international organization.

3. Geographical Scope:

   • The incident must occur within the borders of Ukraine as recognized by the majority of United Nations member states. This includes areas internationally acknowledged as Ukrainian territory, excluding regions under dispute or annexation.

   • If the plane is shot down over Ukraine airspace and lands outside the border of Ukraine, will still resolve "Yes."

4. Final Determination:

   • In the event of conflicting reports, the resolution will be based on the preponderance of evidence from credible sources.

   • The final decision will be made by the market operator, who will ensure all criteria are met and verify the authenticity and credibility of the information.