Do you like 51% odds?
49
Ṁ1413
resolved Dec 13
Resolved
NO

I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior.

After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100. If the number is between 1 and 51, this market resolves to YES; otherwise, it resolves to NO.

I will also record betting behavior for this and related markets with varying odds and analyze the data statistically to look for patterns in participants’ decisions.

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@4fa your random number is: 75

Salt: ac3vowl8tb9, round: 5674107 (signature b74aa2073ccf1216ae0d9553dbbad53e6a6d2793099cb2db414e5e3bade8bad95c9efae2adae8ec323edc8424b6b5cd608b0d8e4f99f557054698707c4b6b6c76e661749ea5fcc873496b5e72755d6dba249e04c3d8f9cca4a4e79b768f81534)

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@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5674105 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5674107, salt: ac3vowl8tb9.

Manifold emailed me this market as a recommendation (alongside 5 others) so I guess Manifold likes 51% odds

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 52% order

@Quroe All gambling be like:

reposted

@traders Should I do 49% or 52% next?

bought Ṁ100 YES

If prob>50: yes

If prob<50: no