If X company has a layoff event of at least 100 persons before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the company, however, a consensus of credible reporting that the layoffs have happened will also be used.
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Rules update (11/19/2024):
Given the nature of reporting about layoffs in the ambiguity that sometimes exists in that reporting, I will be establishing the following resolution structure for resolving markets:
If a company confirms by the end of the year that they have laid off more than 100 employees that company's market will resolve entirely to "yes"
If a consensus of credible reporting clearly states that a company has laid off more than 100 employees that company's market will resolve entirely to "yes"
If a consensus of credible reporting on the company's layoff estimates that the number of people laid off is over 150, the company's market will resolve entirely to "yes." The reason for this is that an estimate of over 150 employees is convincing evidence that the company has laid off at least 100 employees.
If a consensus of credible reporting estimates that a company has laid off approximately 100 employees that market will resolve to 90% "yes" if none of the above happen before the end of the year.
If a company states or there is credible reporting that a company has done layoffs, but the number is not specified by the end of the year that market will resolve to "no"
1,000
1.00@traders Please take note of the following rules update:
Rules update (11/19/2024):
Given the nature of reporting about layoffs in the ambiguity that sometimes exists in that reporting, I will be establishing the following resolution structure for resolving markets:
If a company confirms by the end of the year that they have laid off more than 100 employees that company's market will resolve entirely to "yes"
If a consensus of credible reporting clearly states that a company has laid off more than 100 employees that company's market will resolve entirely to "yes"
If a consensus of credible reporting on the company's layoff estimates that the number of people laid off is over 150, the company's market will resolve entirely to "yes." The reason for this is that an estimate of over 150 employees is convincing evidence that the company has laid off at least 100 employees.
If a consensus of credible reporting estimates that a company has laid off approximately 100 employees that market will resolve to 90% "yes" if none of the above happen before the end of the year.
If a company states or there is credible reporting that a company has done layoffs, but the number is not specified by the end of the year that market will resolve to "no"
If you have any questions, suggestions, or objections, please reply to this message and I will try to accommodate them.
@traders Please take note of the following rules update:
Rules update (11/19/2024):
Given the nature of reporting about layoffs in the ambiguity that sometimes exists in that reporting, I will be establishing the following resolution structure for resolving markets:
If a company confirms by the end of the year that they have laid off more than 100 employees that company's market will resolve entirely to "yes"
If a consensus of credible reporting clearly states that a company has laid off more than 100 employees that company's market will resolve entirely to "yes"
If a consensus of credible reporting on the company's layoff estimates that the number of people laid off is over 150, the company's market will resolve entirely to "yes." The reason for this is that an estimate of over 150 employees is convincing evidence that the company has laid off at least 100 employees.
If a consensus of credible reporting estimates that a company has laid off approximately 100 employees that market will resolve to 90% "yes" if none of the above happen before the end of the year.
If a company states or there is credible reporting that a company has done layoffs, but the number is not specified by the end of the year that market will resolve to "no"
If you have any questions, suggestions, or objections, please reply to this message and I will try to accommodate them.
@AaronSimansky do you want to amend your answer below as well? does this need to happen after market creation?
Fwiw: Netflix and TikTok are both also rumored to have done layoffs this year
@mattyb It doesn't need to happen after market creation it just needs to be officially confirmed between 1/1/2024 and 12/31/2024. Netflix does not qualify for resolution yet as there has not been official confirmation and the rumors suggest that only 15 employees are getting laid off. TikTok does not qualify for resolution yet as no official statement has been made and the rumors are all based on one report from The Information
@AaronSimansky the problem here is that i found an official announcement from Google, and you asked for it to be n/a’d.
i guess this market is predicting if new news will come out about old layoffs, or new layoffs will happen which will be more publicly discussed? so the news has to happen after market creation but the layoffs don’t?
i would advise adding some of this to the market description bc this is a very weird market
@mattyb I just added information to the description. I think that you are correct about the fact that Google should resolve YES and not be N/A'd. However, due to the possibility that people were incorrectly under the impression that the layoffs would need to happen after the market was created, in the interest of fairness, I will wait to resolve the Alphabet market until 12:01 pm Eastern Daylight Time.
Google is laying off at least 200 employees from its "Core" organization, which includes key teams and engineering talent, CNBC has learned.
As part of the unit's reorganization, the company will hire corresponding roles in Mexico and India.
"Announcements of this sort may leave many of you feeling uncertain or frustrated," Asim Husain, vice president of Google Developer Ecosystem, wrote in an email to his team last week.
I assume a quote from a VP is “official”