Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025? | Manifold

Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?

Plus

27

Ṁ674

2026

30%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

There are currently several AI-designed drugs in clinical trials, but no AI-designed drug has received FDA approval thus far (see https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02361-0).

This market resolves to YES iff a drug where a signifcant portion of the design was carried out by non-human agents (so not a repurposed drug, but not necessarily a fully generative AI-designed drug either) gains FDA approval by EOY 2025.

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#Technical AI Timelines

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What counts as AI designed? Many researchers are already using some aspect of AI/ML in their research. My guess is even if the drug was designed purely by an algorithm the researcher would still claim it was them.

There is an article cautioning against unbridled exuberance in Nature News 22nd September by the same writer

"by 2025" and "closes 2026" are contradictory, might want to edit it one way or the other.

@Tasty_Y Huh it says closes 2025 for me… maybe I can rephrase it to “by the end of 2025?”

predicts NO

@AazerSiddiqui Well, that would be consistent then.

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