By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?
Premium
20
Ṁ54942051
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
2024
16%
2025
29%
2026
38%
2027
48%
2028
49%
2030
61%
2040
61%
2050
I will pay attention to the statement "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%" and occasionally report my beliefs if asked in the comments. This market resolves YES to all the years greater than or equal to the first year I report YES on the underlying statement.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
73% chance
Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
17% chance
In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?
57% chance
Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?
5% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
34% chance
Will Inner or Outer AI alignment be considered "mostly solved" first?
By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?
15% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
51% chance
Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
41% chance
Will a Millenium problem be formally stated in a theorem prover by 2025
59% chance