By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?
Plus
14
Ṁ669Dec 31
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a very large-scale AI alignment project be funded before 2025?
9% chance
In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?
59% chance
Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?
49% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
34% chance
Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?
23% chance
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
34% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
51% chance
I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026
59% chance
Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?
1% chance
Will Tetraspace have published a research paper on AI alignment by March 1, 2025?
26% chance