By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem? | Manifold

By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?

Plus

15

Ṁ1519

Dec 31

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

My guess is the answer here is No. I’ll leave the market unresolved for a bit of time in case Yes holders want to make me aware of new evidence.

predicts NO

Liquidating positions across manifold. Does not represent change in belief.

Related questions

If alignment is solved, what percentage of the technical work will have come from MIRI?

Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will taking annual MRIs of the smartest alignment researchers turn out alignment-relevant by 2033?

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will I have a research position at MIRI by 2025?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?

Related questions

If alignment is solved, what percentage of the technical work will have come from MIRI?

Will I have a research position at MIRI by 2025?

Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will taking annual MRIs of the smartest alignment researchers turn out alignment-relevant by 2033?

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules