Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030 | Manifold

Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030

Plus

16

Ṁ550

2030

34%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I suspect that the primary mechanism by which this market resolves to NO would be either burnout or running out of funding. However, do not be limited to these mechanisms when trading.

Relevant market: https://manifold.markets/AlanaXiang/will-i-consider-myself-a-fulltime-a

I do not intend to buy shares in this market (either YES or NO).

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

unlikely given it'll be fully solved by then if we're not dead

@L Short timelines 😨

predicts NO

@Alana yeah read through my current portfolio to get a sense of how short

Oh no I forgot I'm not supposed to buy shares in this market.

@AlanaXiang Sold

Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Related questions

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?

Will we get AGI before 2036?

-5% 1d69% chance

Will we get AGI before 2031?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026

Related questions

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before 2036?

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

Will we get AGI before 2031?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules